The four German transmission system operators (TSOs) 50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT and TransnetBW have carried out special analyses on the electricity supply situation in winter 2022/23 on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection (BMWK). The aim of the analyses was to check whether the overall demand for electricity in Germany would be covered ("power balance") and grid security ("transmission adequacy") would be guaranteed at every hour of this winter.
Three different scenarios with increasingly critical premises were examined in the analysis (scenario +, ++, +++). The special analyses came to the conclusion that in all three scenarios, the supply situation in winter 2022/23 would be tense and the required load on the European electricity market could not always be fully covered. In the two more critical scenarios (++) and (+++), load shortfalls would also occur in Germany in some hours. Grid security would also be put to the test in the cold months. The analyses for all three scenarios showed that the domestic redispatch potential would not be sufficient at all times to manage grid bottlenecks.
Should it be unavoidable to maintain grid stability, controlled, temporary and regionally limited shutdowns of the electricity supply in individual regions of Germany could therefore occur in the winter in question as a last resort. These controlled shutdowns are usually announced and are non-discriminatory. They therefore potentially affect both companies and private households.
In order to reduce the risk of possible temporary load shutdowns, the TSOs proposed a package of measures to the Federal Government as part of the special analyses to increase electricity generation and transmission capacity. These included, among other things, increasing the capacity utilization of the lines, organizing a sufficient supply of fuels, utilizing all generation capacities and transferring the nuclear power plants still connected to the grid to line operation. The more of the proposed measures were implemented, the more positive the effect on the supply situation in winter would be.
Legislative action or sovereign action was required in the short term for all recommendations. The TSOs were and are in close contact with the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK) and the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) and continue to contribute their technical expertise.