The transmission system operators (TSOs) prepare a system analysis (also known as a "demand analysis") once a year in accordance with Section 3 (2) of the Grid Reserve Ordinance (NetzResV).
In this analysis, the TSOs examine the extent to which electricity transmission between producers and consumers can be mapped by the existing transmission grid, even in critical situations.
Based on this, the need for grid reserve power plants for the upcoming winter half-year is determined. Due to widespread public interest, preliminary results of the system analysis were published by the Federal Network Agency even before the need for additional generation capacity for the grid reserve was confirmed.
The transmission system operators expressly point out that these are still preliminary results for the analysis of the need for additional generation capacity for the grid reserve. The review of the calculation results, possible recalculations and the confirmation of the additional demand for grid reserve are still pending. In the event of additional generation capacity requirements for the grid reserve in winter 2023/2024 confirmed by the Federal Network Agency in accordance with Section 3 NetzResV, the transmission system operators will publish the requirements for the necessary plants, including any requirements for the location and technical parameters, in accordance with the confirmation of the Federal Network Agency. The submission of an expression of interest was possible until 15.05.2023 in accordance with Section 4 (2) NetzResV.
In the event of a possible determination of additional demand for domestic and foreign grid reserve for the coming winter of 2023/24, the transmission system operators are already preparing to carry out an expression of interest procedure in accordance with Section 4 (2) NetzResV.
The aim of the expression of interest procedure is to contract additional providers of systems for the grid reserve in Germany and abroad in designated demand regions for the period from 1 October 2023 to 31 March 2024. In addition to Germany, the focus would be on other European countries to the south and west as possible cross-border demand regions.
Demand analyses 2023 (t+1) and (t+3) (as at: 27.03.2023)
The transmission system operators regularly calculate a demand analysis once a year on the basis of Section 3 of the Grid Reserve Ordinance (here: BA 2023). In these analyses, the transmission system operators (TSOs) examine the extent to which electricity transmission between generators and consumers can be mapped by the existing transmission grid, even in critical situations. Based on this, the need for grid reserve power plants for the upcoming winter half-year is determined (BA 2023 / t+1).
In a second calculation (BA 2023 / t+3), the TSOs consider a period further in the future in the respective demand analysis (usually a further two years in advance) in order to be able to estimate developments at an early stage. The demand analyses prepared by the TSOs are reviewed by the Federal Network Agency and the grid reserve requirement is confirmed in the spring of each year.
Last year was a special situation due to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. For this reason, two special analyses were carried out in 2022 in addition to the annual needs analysis, which were published in July and September. These were based on the 2022 needs analysis and a large number of specific measures to stabilize the electricity supply were derived, which have since been implemented.
Due to broad public interest, but also in order to evaluate the measures, a summary of the results for the 2023/24 time horizon was submitted to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy and the Federal Network Agency before the complete system analyses (t+1 and t+3) were sent. In the interests of transparency, the four transmission system operators are also publishing this summary on this page.